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Meshakhte vs Dinamo Batumi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 22 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 13:00

Meshakhte

PPG 0.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Dinamo Batumi

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-110.6%0-210.2%0-36.5%0-4+4.8%1 1-05.4%1-110.4%1-29.9%1-36.3%1-4+4.7%2 2-02.6%2-15.1%2-24.8%2-33.1%2-4+2.3%3 3-00.9%3-11.6%3-21.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.3% 23.8% 4.20 -1.3%

Draw 21.3% 30.3% 3.30 -17.8%

Away win 55.4% 58.8% 1.70 -5.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 55.6% 1.80 +7.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 33.7% 2.97 +8.7%

BTTS 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Home O1.5 30.6% 29.9% 3.34 +2.2%

Away O1.5 55.2% 55.9% 1.79 -1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob54.7%

A 55% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 0–2 10.2%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1✓ 10.6%

#5 2–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Meshakhte1.0

Dinamo Batumi1.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MESHAKHTE · PPG 0.50

DINAMO BATUMI · PPG 1.18

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.94 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Meshakhte (H) 23.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.3%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -17.8%

Dinamo Batumi (A) 55.4%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Meshakhte face Dinamo Batumi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Meshakhte a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Dinamo Batumi 55%, so Dinamo Batumi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Meshakhte and 1.9 for Dinamo Batumi (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Meshakhte are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.18 for Dinamo Batumi. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Meshakhte vs Dinamo Batumi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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