Today / Georgia - Erovnuli Liga / Gagra vs Spaeri

Gagra vs Spaeri Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 21 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 16:00

Gagra

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Spaeri

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-111.2%0-26.3%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.8%1-113.2%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.0%2-17.8%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.8%3-13.1%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% — — —

Draw 27.0% — — —

Away win 29.1% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 27.6% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 31.7% — — —

Away O1.5 34.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -5.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.2%

H 44% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gagra1.2

Spaeri1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GAGRA · PPG 1.00

SPAERI · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.06, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gagra (H) 43.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Spaeri (A) 29.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gagra face Spaeri in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gagra a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Spaeri 29%, so Gagra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Gagra and 1.1 for Spaeri (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gagra are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Spaeri.

Gagra vs Spaeri Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Georgia - Erovnuli Liga Predictions