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Samgurali vs Rustavi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:00

Samgurali

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rustavi

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.28, combined xG 2.49 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-111.5%0-27.9%0-33.7%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.2%1-112.7%1-28.8%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.1%2-17.0%2-24.9%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.9%3-12.6%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.6% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 44.9% — — —

Over 2.5 53.3% — — —

Over 3.5 31.5% — — —

BTTS 54.3% — — —

Home O1.5 30.9% — — —

Away O1.5 40.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.7%

#2 0–1 11.5%

#3 1–2 8.8%

#4 0–2 7.9%

#5 0–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samgurali1.1

Rustavi1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMGURALI · PPG 1.70

RUSTAVI · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.28, combined xG 2.49 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Samgurali (H) 30.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Rustavi (A) 44.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Samgurali face Rustavi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samgurali a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Rustavi 45%, so Rustavi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Samgurali and 1.4 for Rustavi (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samgurali are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.27 for Rustavi. This match finished 1-1.

Samgurali vs Rustavi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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