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Dinamo Tbilisi vs Dila Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 23 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 17:00

Dinamo Tbilisi

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dila

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-19.4%0-24.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.1%1-112.8%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-18.7%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.8%3-14.0%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 46.5% 2.15 -11.4%

Draw 25.4% 30.3% 3.30 -9.7%

Away win 33.4% 34.7% 2.88 -3.8%

Over 2.5 51.4% 51.3% 1.95 +0.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 32.5% 3.08 -2.7%

BTTS 53.3% 60.6% 1.65 -12.1%

Home O1.5 39.5% 47.4% 2.11 -16.7%

Away O1.5 32.5% 38.9% 2.57 -16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.3%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 0–1 9.4%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1✓ 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Tbilisi1.4

Dila1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO TBILISI · PPG 1.36

DILA · PPG 1.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.31, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Tbilisi (H) 41.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -11.4%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -9.7%

Dila (A) 33.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Tbilisi face Dila in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Tbilisi a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Dila 33%, so Dinamo Tbilisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dinamo Tbilisi and 1.1 for Dila (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Tbilisi are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.33 for Dila. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Dinamo Tbilisi vs Dila Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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