National 1
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 36 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
33.3%
1X2
12/36
38.9%
O/U 2.5
14/36
44.4%
BTTS
16/36
33.3%
Exact score
12/36
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
21
Settled
42.9%
Hit rate
9/21
1.77
Avg odds
-23.9%
ROI
-5.0u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=11 54.5% HIT · AVG 1.68 · -6.2% ROI
BTTS · N=6 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.66 · -46.7% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=4 25.0% HIT · AVG 2.17 · -38.8% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-26.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
1
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
3
Bets
33%
Hit
-18.3%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
15
Bets
47%
Hit
-19.7%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 7 PICKS · 2 HIT · 5 MISS
15 MAY Aubagne vs Caen BTTS -19% 3–1 HIT15 MAY Versailles vs Stade Briochin Home -27% 2–2 MISS15 MAY Valenciennes vs Chateauroux — NO PICK 2–2 —15 MAY Sochaux vs Le Puy — NO PICK 2–2 —15 MAY Fleury-Merogis vs Rouen — NO PICK 1–2 —15 MAY Dijon vs Orleans Home -15% 3–2 HIT15 MAY Concarneau vs Villefranche — NO PICK 2–2 —9 MAY Rouen vs Versailles — NO PICK 1–3 —9 MAY Stade Briochin vs Quevilly Rouen BTTS -11% 3–0 MISS9 MAY Le Puy vs Dijon — NO PICK 1–2 —9 MAY Chateauroux vs Sochaux Away -2% 2–1 MISS9 MAY Caen vs Concarneau — NO PICK 0–0 —9 MAY Bourg-en-Bresse vs Valenciennes — NO PICK 1–0 —9 MAY Orleans vs Fleury-Merogis BTTS -13% 2–0 MISS2 MAY Sochaux vs Valenciennes Home -18% 1–1 MISS