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Orleans vs Fleury-Merogis Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 17:30

Orleans

PPG 1.53 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Fleury-Merogis

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-113.4%0-28.8%0-33.8%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.9%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.8%2-16.3%2-24.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.5%3-12.0%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.5% 42.6% 2.35 -21.2%

Draw 29.3% 30.3% 3.30 -2.0%

Away win 43.2% 37.7% 2.65 +14.5%

Over 2.5 46.0% 52.6% 1.90 -12.6%

Over 3.5 19.7% 30.8% 3.25 -21.6%

BTTS 52.3% 59.9% 1.67 -12.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.3%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.2%

#3 0–1 13.4%

#4 0–2 8.8%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orleans1.0

Fleury-Merogis1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ORLEANS · PPG 1.53

FLEURY-MEROGIS · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Orleans (H) 27.5%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -21.2%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.0%

Fleury-Merogis (A) 43.2%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orleans face Fleury-Merogis in France - National 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orleans a 28% chance, the draw 29% and Fleury-Merogis 43%, so Fleury-Merogis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Orleans and 1.3 for Fleury-Merogis (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orleans are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.73 for Fleury-Merogis. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Orleans vs Fleury-Merogis Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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