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Versailles vs Stade Briochin Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 17:30

Versailles

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Stade Briochin

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-16.8%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.5%1-111.4%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.5%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.4%3-15.3%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 71.4% 1.40 -26.5%

Draw 25.5% 24.4% 4.10 +2.7%

Away win 22.0% 14.3% 7.00 +32.4%

Over 2.5 47.6% 61.7% 1.62 -22.9%

Over 3.5 24.7% 40.0% 2.50 -22.9%

BTTS 52.1% 57.1% 1.75 -8.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.1%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 0–0 8.0%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Versailles1.7

Stade Briochin0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VERSAILLES · PPG 1.80

STADE BRIOCHIN · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=52.5%

Win probability 1X2

Versailles (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -26.5%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +2.7%

Stade Briochin (A) 22.0%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +32.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Versailles face Stade Briochin in France - National 1 on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Versailles a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Stade Briochin 22%, so Versailles are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Versailles and 0.8 for Stade Briochin (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Versailles are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.87 for Stade Briochin. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Versailles vs Stade Briochin Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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