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Bourg-en-Bresse vs Valenciennes Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 17:30

Bourg-en-Bresse

PPG 1.07 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Valenciennes

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-114.3%0-27.7%0-32.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.4%1-113.5%1-27.3%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.9%2-16.4%2-23.4%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.8%3-12.0%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% 47.6% 2.10 -27.6%

Draw 29.4% 30.8% 3.25 -2.7%

Away win 36.1% 31.3% 3.20 +15.5%

Over 2.5 45.8% 51.3% 1.95 -10.7%

Over 3.5 14.8% 29.0% 3.45 -29.4%

BTTS 48.2% 57.8% 1.73 -16.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.2%

D 29% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.1%

#3 0–1 14.3%

#4 1–0✓ 12.4%

#5 0–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bourg-en-Bresse0.9

Valenciennes1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 14.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BOURG-EN-BRESSE · PPG 1.07

VALENCIENNES · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Bourg-en-Bresse (H) 34.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -27.6%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -2.7%

Valenciennes (A) 36.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bourg-en-Bresse face Valenciennes in France - National 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bourg-en-Bresse a 35% chance, the draw 29% and Valenciennes 36%, so Valenciennes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Bourg-en-Bresse and 1.1 for Valenciennes (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bourg-en-Bresse are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.00 for Valenciennes. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Bourg-en-Bresse vs Valenciennes Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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