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Sochaux vs Le Puy Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 17:30

Sochaux

PPG 2.13 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Le Puy

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-19.1%0-23.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.4%1-112.5%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-18.6%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.9%3-14.0%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 60.6% 1.65 -17.7%

Draw 27.2% 28.2% 3.55 -2.1%

Away win 22.9% 21.1% 4.75 +5.3%

Over 2.5 45.4% 52.6% 1.90 -13.7%

Over 3.5 17.9% 30.8% 3.25 -25.1%

BTTS 48.9% 55.6% 1.80 -12.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.9%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 15.4%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sochaux1.4

Le Puy0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SOCHAUX · PPG 2.13

LE PUY · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.13) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Sochaux (H) 49.9%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -17.7%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.1%

Le Puy (A) 22.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sochaux face Le Puy in France - National 1 on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sochaux a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Le Puy 23%, so Sochaux are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sochaux and 0.8 for Le Puy (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sochaux are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.60 for Le Puy. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Sochaux vs Le Puy Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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