Today / France - National 1 / Valenciennes vs Chateauroux

Valenciennes vs Chateauroux Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 17:30

Valenciennes

PPG 1.47 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Chateauroux

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-110.6%0-25.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.7%1-113.2%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.5%2-18.2%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.5%3-13.4%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 25.3% 3.95 +72.2%

Draw 30.4% 26.3% 3.80 +15.5%

Away win 26.0% 57.8% 1.73 -33.0%

Over 2.5 45.4% 59.9% 1.67 -24.2%

Over 3.5 18.1% 37.0% 2.70 -30.7%

BTTS 49.7% 61.7% 1.62 -19.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.7%

H 44% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 13.7%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valenciennes1.2

Chateauroux1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VALENCIENNES · PPG 1.47

CHATEAUROUX · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Valenciennes (H) 43.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +72.2%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +15.5%

Chateauroux (A) 26.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -33.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valenciennes face Chateauroux in France - National 1 on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valenciennes a 44% chance, the draw 30% and Chateauroux 26%, so Valenciennes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Valenciennes and 1.0 for Chateauroux (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valenciennes are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.13 for Chateauroux. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +72.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Valenciennes vs Chateauroux Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - National 1 Predictions