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Dijon vs Orleans Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 17:30

Dijon

PPG 1.93 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Orleans

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-17.8%0-23.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.2%1-111.9%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.0%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.8%3-14.6%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 61.0% 1.64 -15.0%

Draw 26.4% 27.0% 3.70 -1.4%

Away win 21.7% 21.7% 4.60 -0.1%

Over 2.5 46.5% 59.9% 1.67 -22.4%

Over 3.5 20.2% 37.7% 2.65 -27.9%

BTTS 49.7% 60.6% 1.65 -18.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.7%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 15.2%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 2–0 11.5%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dijon1.5

Orleans0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DIJON · PPG 1.93

ORLEANS · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.93), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Dijon (H) 51.8%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -15.0%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.4%

Orleans (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dijon face Orleans in France - National 1 on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dijon a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Orleans 22%, so Dijon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Dijon and 0.8 for Orleans (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dijon are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.67 for Orleans. This match finished 3-2.

Dijon vs Orleans Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - National 1 Predictions