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Caen vs Concarneau Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 17:30

Caen

PPG 1.53 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Concarneau

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-111.1%0-24.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.1%1-112.9%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.9%2-17.5%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.8%3-12.9%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 48.8% 2.05 -10.0%

Draw 30.1% 29.4% 3.40 +2.3%

Away win 26.0% 32.3% 3.10 -11.6%

Over 2.5 35.1% 59.9% 1.67 -41.4%

Over 3.5 12.7% 38.2% 2.62 -40.0%

BTTS 48.2% 65.4% 1.53 -26.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.2%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 14.8%

#2 1–0 17.1%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 0–1 11.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caen1.2

Concarneau0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CAEN · PPG 1.53

CONCARNEAU · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Caen (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -10.0%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +2.3%

Concarneau (A) 26.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caen face Concarneau in France - National 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caen a 44% chance, the draw 30% and Concarneau 26%, so Caen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Caen and 0.8 for Concarneau (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caen are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.20 for Concarneau. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Caen vs Concarneau Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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