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Sochaux vs Valenciennes Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 15:00

Sochaux

PPG 2.21 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Valenciennes

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-17.1%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.1%1-111.6%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.4%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.2%3-15.1%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Draw 28.2% 25.3% 3.95 +11.4%

Away win 17.2% 18.5% 5.40 -7.1%

Over 2.5 44.1% 57.1% 1.75 -22.8%

Over 3.5 23.0% 34.5% 2.90 -33.3%

BTTS 46.6% 55.6% 1.80 -16.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.6%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.6%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sochaux1.6

Valenciennes0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SOCHAUX · PPG 2.21

VALENCIENNES · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.21) vs P(Home)=54.6%

Win probability 1X2

Sochaux (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -18.1%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +11.4%

Valenciennes (A) 17.2%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sochaux face Valenciennes in France - National 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sochaux a 55% chance, the draw 28% and Valenciennes 17%, so Sochaux are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sochaux and 0.8 for Valenciennes (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sochaux are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 1.00 for Valenciennes. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +11.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Sochaux vs Valenciennes Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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