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Fleury-Merogis vs Rouen Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 17:30

Fleury-Merogis

PPG 1.87 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Rouen

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-111.7%0-25.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.0%1-113.3%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.5%2-17.6%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.2%3-12.9%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% 41.7% 2.40 +0.3%

Draw 32.0% 30.3% 3.30 +5.6%

Away win 26.2% 38.2% 2.62 -18.8%

Over 2.5 43.9% 58.8% 1.70 -25.4%

Over 3.5 14.7% 37.0% 2.70 -36.2%

BTTS 48.1% 65.4% 1.53 -26.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.1%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 1–0 15.0%

#4 0–1 11.7%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fleury-Merogis1.1

Rouen0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.9% · O3.5 PROB 14.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FLEURY-MEROGIS · PPG 1.87

ROUEN · PPG 1.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.87) > Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Fleury-Merogis (H) 41.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +0.3%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +5.6%

Rouen (A) 26.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fleury-Merogis face Rouen in France - National 1 on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fleury-Merogis a 42% chance, the draw 32% and Rouen 26%, so Fleury-Merogis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Fleury-Merogis and 0.9 for Rouen (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fleury-Merogis are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.53 for Rouen. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Fleury-Merogis vs Rouen Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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