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Concarneau vs Villefranche Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 17:30

Concarneau

PPG 1.20 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Villefranche

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-111.7%0-24.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.4%1-113.1%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.2%2-17.4%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.5%3-12.8%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.8% 55.6% 1.80 -23.0%

Draw 32.8% 29.4% 3.40 +11.5%

Away win 24.5% 25.0% 4.00 -1.2%

Over 2.5 34.7% 55.6% 1.80 -37.5%

Over 3.5 13.0% 33.3% 3.00 -36.6%

BTTS 48.1% 59.9% 1.67 -19.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.1%

H 43% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.5%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.4%

#4 0–1 11.7%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Concarneau1.1

Villefranche0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 13.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CONCARNEAU · PPG 1.20

VILLEFRANCHE · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Concarneau (H) 42.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -23.0%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +11.5%

Villefranche (A) 24.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Concarneau face Villefranche in France - National 1 on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Concarneau a 43% chance, the draw 33% and Villefranche 25%, so Concarneau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Concarneau and 0.8 for Villefranche (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Concarneau are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.67 for Villefranche. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Concarneau vs Villefranche Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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