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Le Puy vs Dijon Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 17:30

Le Puy

PPG 1.47 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Dijon

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-115.1%0-28.7%0-33.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.5%1-113.3%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.0%2-15.8%2-23.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.5%3-11.7%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 27.8% 3.60 +2.2%

Draw 31.1% 30.3% 3.30 +2.6%

Away win 40.1% 52.4% 1.91 -23.4%

Over 2.5 45.8% 54.1% 1.85 -15.3%

Over 3.5 15.0% 31.3% 3.20 -31.2%

BTTS 48.2% 58.8% 1.70 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.2%

A 40% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 0–1 15.1%

#4 1–0 11.5%

#5 0–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Le Puy0.9

Dijon1.2

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 15.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LE PUY · PPG 1.47

DIJON · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Le Puy (H) 28.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +2.2%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +2.6%

Dijon (A) 40.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Le Puy face Dijon in France - National 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Le Puy a 29% chance, the draw 31% and Dijon 40%, so Dijon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Le Puy and 1.2 for Dijon (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Le Puy are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 2.00 for Dijon. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Le Puy vs Dijon Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - National 1 Predictions