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Aubagne vs Caen Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 17:30

Aubagne

PPG 0.87 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Caen

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-113.0%0-28.3%0-33.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.2%1-113.1%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.1%2-16.6%2-24.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.7%3-12.2%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% 32.3% 3.10 -5.8%

Draw 29.8% 30.8% 3.25 -1.9%

Away win 39.9% 47.6% 2.10 -16.2%

Over 2.5 46.1% 58.8% 1.70 -21.6%

Over 3.5 19.8% 37.0% 2.70 -27.9%

BTTS 52.1% 64.5% 1.55 -19.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.1%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.2%

#3 0–1 13.0%

#4 1–2 8.4%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aubagne1.0

Caen1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.1% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AUBAGNE · PPG 0.87

CAEN · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.87), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Aubagne (H) 30.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.8%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -1.9%

Caen (A) 39.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aubagne face Caen in France - National 1 on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aubagne a 30% chance, the draw 30% and Caen 40%, so Caen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Aubagne and 1.3 for Caen (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aubagne are averaging 0.87 points per game versus 1.07 for Caen. This match finished 3-1.

Aubagne vs Caen Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - National 1 Predictions