Today / France - National 1 / Chateauroux vs Sochaux

Chateauroux vs Sochaux Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 17:30

Chateauroux

PPG 0.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Sochaux

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-116.1%0-212.2%0-36.1%0-4+3.2%1 1-07.8%1-111.7%1-28.9%1-34.5%1-4+2.4%2 2-02.8%2-14.3%2-23.2%2-31.6%2-4+0.9%3 3-00.7%3-11.0%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.6% 25.0% 4.00 -17.8%

Draw 27.3% 28.6% 3.50 -2.7%

Away win 55.1% 56.5% 1.77 -2.5%

Over 2.5 45.8% 54.1% 1.85 -15.3%

Over 3.5 18.8% 31.3% 3.20 -23.9%

BTTS 48.2% 57.8% 1.73 -16.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.2%

A 55% / xG 0.7-1.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.1%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 0–0 10.7%

#4 0–2 12.2%

#5 1–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chateauroux0.7

Sochaux1.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHATEAUROUX · PPG 0.67

SOCHAUX · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.67) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Chateauroux (H) 17.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -17.8%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.7%

Sochaux (A) 55.1%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chateauroux face Sochaux in France - National 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chateauroux a 18% chance, the draw 27% and Sochaux 55%, so Sochaux are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Chateauroux and 1.5 for Sochaux (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chateauroux are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.67 for Sochaux. This match finished 2-1.

Chateauroux vs Sochaux Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - National 1 Predictions