Leagues / ENGLAND / Premier League
Premier League
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
Upcoming Premier League predictions
DateMatchPickProbOddsEV
4 SEPT19:00 Ipswich vs Liverpool Over 2.5 62% 1.50 -7%// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 72 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
48.6%
1X2
35/72
45.8%
O/U 2.5
33/72
56.9%
BTTS
41/72
43.1%
Exact score
31/72
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
11
Settled
54.5%
Hit rate
6/11
1.83
Avg odds
-9.4%
ROI
-1.0u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=5 40.0% HIT · AVG 1.65 · -35.8% ROI
HOME WIN · N=4 50.0% HIT · AVG 2.04 · -24.8% ROI
BTTS · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.90 · +90.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.85 · +85.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
100%
Hit
+73.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-5.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
2
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
6
Bets
67%
Hit
+5.7%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 14 PICKS · 8 HIT · 6 MISS
31 AUG Aston Villa vs Arsenal BTTS -2% 0–1 MISS30 AUG Leeds vs Brentford BTTS -10% 1–1 HIT30 AUG Sunderland vs Fulham BTTS -6% 1–0 MISS30 AUG Chelsea vs Brighton BTTS -10% 4–3 HIT29 AUG Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest BTTS -9% 2–2 HIT29 AUG Bournemouth vs Everton BTTS -9% 1–1 HIT29 AUG Tottenham vs Newcastle BTTS -17% 0–2 MISS28 AUG Crystal Palace vs Manchester City — NO PICK 1–4 —24 AUG Fulham vs Chelsea BTTS -10% 2–3 HIT23 AUG Brighton vs Aston Villa BTTS -12% 4–0 MISS23 AUG Manchester City vs Bournemouth Over 2.5 -14% 2–1 HIT23 AUG Newcastle vs Liverpool BTTS -12% 2–2 HIT22 AUG Everton vs Crystal Palace BTTS -9% 2–0 MISS22 AUG Nottingham Forest vs Leeds BTTS -7% 0–1 MISS22 AUG Brentford vs Tottenham Over 2.5 -11% 3–0 HIT