Leagues / ENGLAND / Premier League
Premier League
▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE
MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 57 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
47.4%
1X2
27/57
43.9%
O/U 2.5
25/57
59.6%
BTTS
34/57
43.9%
Exact score
25/57
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
57
Settled
68.4%
Hit rate
39/57
1.60
Avg odds
+6.3%
ROI
+3.6u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=30 70.0% HIT · AVG 1.61 · +13.7% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=14 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.55 · -24.6% ROI
HOME WIN · N=10 80.0% HIT · AVG 1.66 · +14.1% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=3 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.52 · +51.7% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
100%
Hit
+70.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
6
Bets
83%
Hit
+22.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
8
Bets
50%
Hit
-16.8%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
41
Bets
68%
Hit
+5.5%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 15 PICKS · 9 HIT · 6 MISS
24 MAY West Ham Utd vs Leeds Utd BTTS -3% 3–0 MISS24 MAY Liverpool vs Brentford Over 2.5 -13% 1–1 MISS24 MAY Fulham vs Newcastle Utd Over 2.5 -16% 2–0 MISS24 MAY Crystal Palace vs Arsenal Away +3% 1–2 HIT24 MAY Brighton vs Manchester Utd BTTS -14% 0–3 MISS24 MAY Tottenham vs Everton BTTS -14% 1–0 MISS24 MAY Sunderland vs Chelsea BTTS -15% 2–1 HIT24 MAY Nottm Forest vs Bournemouth BTTS -12% 1–1 HIT24 MAY Manchester City vs Aston Villa Over 2.5 -24% 1–2 HIT19 MAY Bournemouth vs Manchester City BTTS -21% 1–1 HIT19 MAY Chelsea vs Tottenham BTTS -15% 2–1 HIT18 MAY Arsenal vs Burnley Home -26% 1–0 HIT17 MAY Manchester Utd vs Nottm Forest Over 2.5 -7% 3–2 HIT17 MAY Everton vs Sunderland BTTS -11% 1–3 HIT17 MAY Leeds Utd vs Brighton BTTS -18% 1–0 MISS