Today / England - Premier League / Manchester City vs Bournemouth

Manchester City vs Bournemouth Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 13:00

Manchester City

PPG 2.07 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bournemouth

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.5%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.4%1-19.5%1-24.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.0%3-17.0%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-15.9%4+-23.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 66.7% 1.50 -16.2%

Draw 22.2% 21.7% 4.60 +1.3%

Away win 21.9% 18.2% 5.50 +12.3%

Over 2.5 59.9% 69.4% 1.44 -13.7%

Over 3.5 36.8% 47.6% 2.10 -22.7%

BTTS 54.7% 65.4% 1.53 -16.3%

Home O1.5 59.6% 71.4% 1.40 -16.6%

Away O1.5 30.8% 30.8% 3.25 +0.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 56% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1✓ 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manchester City2.1

Bournemouth1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MANCHESTER CITY · PPG 2.07

BOURNEMOUTH · PPG 1.42

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Manchester City (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -16.2%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +1.3%

Bournemouth (A) 21.9%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manchester City face Bournemouth in England - Premier League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manchester City a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Bournemouth 22%, so Manchester City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Manchester City and 1.0 for Bournemouth (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manchester City are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.42 for Bournemouth. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Manchester City vs Bournemouth Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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