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Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Nottingham Forest

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

LD ···

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Leeds

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-17.6%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.1%1-112.0%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.4%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.6%3-14.9%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 43.9% 2.28 +8.8%

Draw 24.8% 30.3% 3.30 -10.9%

Away win 27.5% 32.8% 3.05 -9.7%

Over 2.5 53.9% 52.4% 1.91 +2.9%

Over 3.5 31.2% 30.8% 3.25 +1.4%

BTTS 54.7% 58.8% 1.70 -7.0%

Home O1.5 46.3% 46.5% 2.15 -0.4%

Away O1.5 34.9% 37.7% 2.65 -7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nottingham Forest1.6

Leeds1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NOTTINGHAM FOREST · PPG 1.21

LEEDS · PPG 1.04

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nottingham Forest (H) 47.7%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +8.8%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.9%

Leeds (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nottingham Forest face Leeds in England - Premier League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nottingham Forest a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Leeds 28%, so Nottingham Forest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Nottingham Forest and 1.1 for Leeds (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.04 for Leeds. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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