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Everton vs Crystal Palace Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Everton

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Crystal Palace

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-18.2%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.8%1-112.3%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-19.2%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.4%3-14.6%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 46.7% 2.14 +0.8%

Draw 25.8% 29.9% 3.35 -8.1%

Away win 27.2% 30.3% 3.30 -6.1%

Over 2.5 51.0% 52.6% 1.90 -3.1%

Over 3.5 30.9% 30.8% 3.25 +0.4%

BTTS 53.4% 58.8% 1.70 -9.2%

Home O1.5 40.0% 47.6% 2.10 -16.0%

Away O1.5 32.8% 36.4% 2.75 -9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.4%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 2–0✓ 8.8%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Everton1.5

Crystal Palace1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

EVERTON · PPG 1.31

CRYSTAL PALACE · PPG 1.34

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Everton (H) 47.1%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV +0.8%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.1%

Crystal Palace (A) 27.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Everton face Crystal Palace in England - Premier League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Everton a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Crystal Palace 27%, so Everton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Everton and 1.0 for Crystal Palace (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Everton are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.34 for Crystal Palace. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Everton vs Crystal Palace Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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