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Sunderland vs Fulham Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

Sunderland

PPG 1.66 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Fulham

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.2%0-24.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.8%1-111.7%1-26.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.4%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.3%3-15.0%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 41.7% 2.40 +6.3%

Draw 26.6% 31.3% 3.20 -8.9%

Away win 29.0% 34.5% 2.90 -9.5%

Over 2.5 51.1% 50.0% 2.00 +2.2%

Over 3.5 31.4% 28.6% 3.50 +9.9%

BTTS 53.6% 57.1% 1.75 -6.2%

Home O1.5 48.7% 44.4% 2.25 +9.6%

Away O1.5 33.8% 36.4% 2.75 -7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.6%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0✓ 9.8%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sunderland1.6

Fulham1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SUNDERLAND · PPG 1.66

FULHAM · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sunderland (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +6.3%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.9%

Fulham (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sunderland face Fulham in England - Premier League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sunderland a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Fulham 29%, so Sunderland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sunderland and 1.2 for Fulham (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sunderland are averaging 1.66 points per game versus 1.10 for Fulham. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Sunderland vs Fulham Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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