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Brentford vs Tottenham Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:30

Brentford

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tottenham

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-16.6%0-23.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.2%1-111.3%1-26.2%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.7%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.0%3-15.5%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.5%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 41.7% 2.40 +21.9%

Draw 24.6% 28.2% 3.55 -7.6%

Away win 24.6% 37.3% 2.68 -20.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 60.6% 1.65 -11.1%

Over 3.5 32.5% 38.2% 2.62 -14.8%

BTTS 54.7% 65.4% 1.53 -16.3%

Home O1.5 48.8% 50.0% 2.00 -2.4%

Away O1.5 35.6% 46.5% 2.15 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brentford1.7

Tottenham1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BRENTFORD · PPG 1.62

TOTTENHAM · PPG 1.42

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Brentford (H) 50.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +21.9%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.6%

Tottenham (A) 24.6%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV -20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brentford face Tottenham in England - Premier League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brentford a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Tottenham 25%, so Brentford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Brentford and 1.1 for Tottenham (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brentford are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.42 for Tottenham. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Brentford vs Tottenham Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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