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Tottenham vs Newcastle Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:30

Tottenham

PPG 1.04 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Newcastle

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.9%0-25.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.4%1-111.9%1-27.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.0%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.6%3-14.5%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 44.4% 2.25 -13.6%

Draw 26.6% 27.8% 3.60 -2.5%

Away win 34.9% 34.7% 2.88 +0.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 61.7% 1.62 -18.2%

Over 3.5 31.0% 40.0% 2.50 -22.5%

BTTS 52.7% 63.7% 1.57 -17.3%

Home O1.5 40.1% 54.6% 1.83 -26.6%

Away O1.5 36.6% 45.5% 2.20 -19.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.7%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 7.5%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 0–0 6.2%

#5 1–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tottenham1.5

Newcastle1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TOTTENHAM · PPG 1.04

NEWCASTLE · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tottenham (H) 38.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -13.6%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -2.5%

Newcastle (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tottenham face Newcastle in England - Premier League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tottenham a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Newcastle 35%, so Tottenham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Tottenham and 1.3 for Newcastle (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tottenham are averaging 1.04 points per game versus 1.10 for Newcastle. This match finished 0-2.

Tottenham vs Newcastle Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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