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Ipswich vs Liverpool Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 19:00

Ipswich

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

UPCOMING

Liverpool

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DD ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.7%0-24.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.3%1-110.3%1-27.3%1-33.4%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.5%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.9%3-15.5%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.7%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 18.2% 5.50 +148.6%

Draw 24.1% 21.5% 4.65 +7.2%

Away win 30.7% 67.6% 1.48 -54.6%

Over 2.5 61.7% 69.4% 1.44 -11.2%

Over 3.5 40.2% 47.6% 2.10 -15.6%

BTTS 61.5% 64.5% 1.55 -4.7%

Home O1.5 49.9% 34.5% 2.90 +44.7%

Away O1.5 42.2% 71.4% 1.40 -40.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 45% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ipswich1.8

Liverpool1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

IPSWICH · PPG 1.75

LIVERPOOL · PPG 1.29

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ipswich (H) 45.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +148.6%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +7.2%

Liverpool (A) 30.7%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -54.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ipswich face Liverpool in England - Premier League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ipswich a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Liverpool 31%, so Ipswich are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Ipswich and 1.4 for Liverpool (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ipswich are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.29 for Liverpool. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +130.3%.

Ipswich vs Liverpool Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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