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Fulham vs Chelsea Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 19:00

Fulham

PPG 1.72 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chelsea

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.4%0-24.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.5%1-111.7%1-27.2%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.3%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.0%3-14.9%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.8%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 26.3% 3.80 +75.9%

Draw 24.3% 26.7% 3.75 -5.3%

Away win 29.4% 54.1% 1.85 -27.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 59.9% 1.67 -10.7%

Over 3.5 32.8% 38.2% 2.62 -14.1%

BTTS 55.4% 61.7% 1.62 -10.3%

Home O1.5 47.6% 36.4% 2.75 +30.9%

Away O1.5 36.6% 57.8% 1.73 -36.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fulham1.6

Chelsea1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FULHAM · PPG 1.72

CHELSEA · PPG 1.42

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fulham (H) 46.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +75.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.3%

Chelsea (A) 29.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fulham face Chelsea in England - Premier League on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fulham a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Chelsea 29%, so Fulham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Fulham and 1.2 for Chelsea (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fulham are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.42 for Chelsea. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +43.7%. This match finished 2-3.

Fulham vs Chelsea Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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