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Newcastle vs Liverpool Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:30

Newcastle

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Liverpool

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

LAST 5

DD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.3%0-24.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.2%1-110.8%1-27.2%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.3%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.0%3-15.3%3-23.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.4%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 27.0% 3.70 +73.5%

Draw 24.1% 26.3% 3.80 -5.1%

Away win 29.0% 54.1% 1.85 -27.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 45.5% 2.20 -19.5%

BTTS 61.3% 69.4% 1.44 -11.7%

Home O1.5 48.8% 42.0% 2.38 +16.1%

Away O1.5 41.2% 63.7% 1.57 -35.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.3%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newcastle1.7

Liverpool1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWCASTLE · PPG 1.62

LIVERPOOL · PPG 1.34

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Newcastle (H) 46.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +73.5%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.1%

Liverpool (A) 29.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newcastle face Liverpool in England - Premier League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newcastle a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Liverpool 29%, so Newcastle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Newcastle and 1.3 for Liverpool (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newcastle are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.34 for Liverpool. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +62.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Newcastle vs Liverpool Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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