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Aston Villa vs Arsenal Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 19:00

Aston Villa

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Arsenal

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-18.4%0-25.8%0-32.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.7%1-111.9%1-28.2%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.2%2-18.5%2-25.8%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.9%3-14.0%3-22.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 16.7% 6.00 +116.0%

Draw 25.3% 25.0% 4.00 +0.7%

Away win 38.7% 66.7% 1.50 -41.9%

Over 2.5 51.7% 55.6% 1.80 -6.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 39.9% 22.2% 4.50 +79.5%

Away O1.5 42.2% 61.7% 1.62 -31.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.9%

A 39% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 0–1✓ 8.4%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aston Villa1.4

Arsenal1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ASTON VILLA · PPG 1.82

ARSENAL · PPG 1.82

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aston Villa (H) 36.0%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +116.0%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +0.7%

Arsenal (A) 38.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -41.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aston Villa face Arsenal in England - Premier League on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aston Villa a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Arsenal 39%, so Arsenal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Aston Villa and 1.4 for Arsenal (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aston Villa are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.82 for Arsenal. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +101.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Aston Villa vs Arsenal Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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