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Bournemouth vs Everton Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Bournemouth

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

LD ···

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Everton

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-17.9%0-24.8%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.9%1-112.0%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.1%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.8%3-14.6%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 48.8% 2.05 -15.3%

Draw 28.3% 29.4% 3.40 -2.3%

Away win 30.4% 29.4% 3.40 +3.4%

Over 2.5 50.5% 52.4% 1.91 -3.5%

Over 3.5 30.0% 31.3% 3.20 -4.0%

BTTS 52.7% 57.8% 1.73 -8.8%

Home O1.5 40.1% 50.0% 2.00 -19.8%

Away O1.5 36.5% 33.3% 3.00 +9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bournemouth1.5

Everton1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BOURNEMOUTH · PPG 1.58

EVERTON · PPG 1.42

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bournemouth (H) 41.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -15.3%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.3%

Everton (A) 30.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bournemouth face Everton in England - Premier League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bournemouth a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Everton 30%, so Bournemouth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bournemouth and 1.2 for Everton (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bournemouth are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.42 for Everton. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Bournemouth vs Everton Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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