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Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:30

Liverpool

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DD ···

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Nottingham Forest

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.1%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.0%1-111.6%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.5%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.5%3-15.2%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 65.4% 1.53 -29.2%

Draw 27.0% 23.1% 4.33 +10.2%

Away win 26.7% 18.2% 5.50 +28.1%

Over 2.5 50.5% 61.7% 1.62 -18.2%

Over 3.5 31.0% 40.0% 2.50 -22.5%

BTTS 52.7% 57.8% 1.73 -8.8%

Home O1.5 48.9% 66.7% 1.50 -26.7%

Away O1.5 33.0% 28.6% 3.50 +15.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.0%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liverpool1.6

Nottingham Forest1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LIVERPOOL · PPG 1.75

NOTTINGHAM FOREST · PPG 1.34

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Liverpool (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -29.2%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +10.2%

Nottingham Forest (A) 26.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +28.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Liverpool face Nottingham Forest in England - Premier League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liverpool a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Nottingham Forest 27%, so Liverpool are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Liverpool and 1.2 for Nottingham Forest (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liverpool are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.34 for Nottingham Forest. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +50.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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