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Leeds vs Brentford Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

Leeds

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Brentford

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.7%0-24.7%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.8%1-111.9%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.2%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.9%3-14.7%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% 40.0% 2.50 +4.8%

Draw 28.0% 30.8% 3.25 -5.4%

Away win 30.1% 37.0% 2.70 -18.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 52.4% 1.91 -3.5%

Over 3.5 30.5% 31.3% 3.20 -2.4%

BTTS 52.7% 58.8% 1.70 -10.4%

Home O1.5 44.1% 42.0% 2.38 +5.0%

Away O1.5 36.6% 42.0% 2.38 -12.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.3%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leeds1.5

Brentford1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LEEDS · PPG 1.62

BRENTFORD · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leeds (H) 41.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +4.8%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.4%

Brentford (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leeds face Brentford in England - Premier League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leeds a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Brentford 30%, so Leeds are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Leeds and 1.2 for Brentford (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leeds are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.25 for Brentford. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +10.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Leeds vs Brentford Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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