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Brighton vs Aston Villa Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 13:00

Brighton

PPG 1.66 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Aston Villa

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-17.9%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.2%1-112.1%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.3%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.4%3-14.8%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 46.5% 2.15 +2.3%

Draw 25.0% 29.4% 3.40 -9.0%

Away win 27.4% 31.3% 3.20 -7.4%

Over 2.5 53.7% 57.8% 1.73 -7.1%

Over 3.5 30.9% 36.4% 2.75 -15.0%

BTTS 54.7% 62.5% 1.60 -12.5%

Home O1.5 42.2% 50.0% 2.00 -15.6%

Away O1.5 35.1% 40.0% 2.50 -12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brighton1.5

Aston Villa1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BRIGHTON · PPG 1.66

ASTON VILLA · PPG 1.45

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Brighton (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +2.3%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.0%

Aston Villa (A) 27.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brighton face Aston Villa in England - Premier League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brighton a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Aston Villa 27%, so Brighton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Brighton and 1.1 for Aston Villa (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brighton are averaging 1.66 points per game versus 1.45 for Aston Villa. This match finished 4-0.

Brighton vs Aston Villa Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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