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Crystal Palace vs Manchester City Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 19:00

Crystal Palace

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

1 – 4

FULL TIME

Manchester City

PPG 1.66 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-111.5%0-28.6%0-34.2%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.3%1-112.4%1-29.2%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.5%2-16.6%2-24.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.6%3-12.4%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.5% 21.7% 4.60 +15.9%

Draw 27.6% 25.6% 3.90 +4.6%

Away win 44.9% 59.9% 1.67 -25.0%

Over 2.5 50.5% 59.9% 1.67 -15.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 38.2% 2.62 -14.9%

BTTS 49.2% 59.9% 1.67 -17.8%

Home O1.5 30.9% 30.8% 3.25 +0.4%

Away O1.5 40.9% 61.7% 1.62 -33.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob49.2%

A 45% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 11.5%

#3 1–2 9.2%

#4 0–0 7.8%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Crystal Palace1.1

Manchester City1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CRYSTAL PALACE · PPG 1.25

MANCHESTER CITY · PPG 1.66

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Crystal Palace (H) 27.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +15.9%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +4.6%

Manchester City (A) 44.9%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -25.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Crystal Palace face Manchester City in England - Premier League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crystal Palace a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Manchester City 45%, so Manchester City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Crystal Palace and 1.5 for Manchester City (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crystal Palace are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.66 for Manchester City. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.3%. This match finished 1-4.

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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