Leagues / ENGLAND / Non League Premier - Southern Central
Non League Premier - Southern Central
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 22 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
40.9%
1X2
9/22
59.1%
O/U 2.5
13/22
50.0%
BTTS
11/22
31.8%
Exact score
7/22
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
16
Settled
56.2%
Hit rate
9/16
1.57
Avg odds
-14.7%
ROI
-2.4u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=6 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.53 · -26.0% ROI
HOME WIN · N=5 40.0% HIT · AVG 1.67 · -34.0% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=4 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.48 · +47.8% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.62 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
1
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
14
Bets
64%
Hit
-2.5%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
April 2026 // 14 PICKS · 8 HIT · 6 MISS
25 APR Worcester City vs Spalding Utd BTTS -14% 4–4 HIT25 APR Alvechurch vs Leiston BTTS -21% 1–1 HIT25 APR Barwell vs B. Stortford BTTS -11% 3–1 HIT25 APR Bromsgrove vs Real Bedford Over 2.5 1–3 HIT25 APR Bury Town vs Kettering Town BTTS -6% 0–1 MISS25 APR Halesowen Town vs AFC Sudbury Over 2.5 +14% 5–0 HIT25 APR Needham Market vs Banbury Utd Home -15% 0–2 MISS25 APR Redditch Utd vs Quorn Over 2.5 5–0 HIT25 APR St. Ives Town vs Stratford Town BTTS -16% 0–0 MISS25 APR Stamford vs Harborough Town Away +10% 0–0 MISS25 APR Stourbridge vs Royston Home +4% 1–0 HIT18 APR Worcester City vs St. Ives Town Home +6% 2–2 MISS18 APR Royston vs Stamford — NO PICK 0–3 —18 APR Stratford Town vs Bromsgrove Home +24% 1–2 MISS18 APR AFC Sudbury vs Stourbridge Over 2.5 +13% 0–4 HIT