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Worcester City vs Bromsgrove Sporting Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

Worcester City

PPG 1.74 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bromsgrove Sporting

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-18.2%0-25.6%0-32.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.7%1-111.9%1-28.1%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-18.6%2-25.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.0%3-14.1%3-22.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.2% 40.0% 2.50 -2.0%

Draw 24.3% 33.3% 3.00 -16.3%

Away win 36.5% 40.0% 2.50 -8.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 32.9% 3.04 -3.6%

BTTS 55.9% 59.9% 1.67 -6.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 43.1% 2.32 -7.4%

Away O1.5 42.2% 43.1% 2.32 -2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.9%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 0–1✓ 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Worcester City1.4

Bromsgrove Sporting1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

WORCESTER CITY · PPG 1.74

BROMSGROVE SPORTING · PPG 1.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Worcester City (H) 39.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -2.0%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.3%

Bromsgrove Sporting (A) 36.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Worcester City face Bromsgrove Sporting in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Worcester City a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Bromsgrove Sporting 37%, so Worcester City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Worcester City and 1.4 for Bromsgrove Sporting (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Worcester City are averaging 1.74 points per game versus 1.70 for Bromsgrove Sporting. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Worcester City vs Bromsgrove Sporting Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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