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Leiston vs Redditch United Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Leiston

PPG 1.49 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Redditch United

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.7%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.5%1-112.0%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.3%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.2%3-14.8%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 29.3% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 31.5% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 33.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leiston1.6

Redditch United1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LEISTON · PPG 1.49

REDDITCH UNITED · PPG 1.24

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leiston (H) 46.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Redditch United (A) 29.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Leiston face Redditch United in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leiston a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Redditch United 29%, so Leiston are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Leiston and 1.1 for Redditch United (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leiston are averaging 1.49 points per game versus 1.24 for Redditch United. This match finished 3-1.

Leiston vs Redditch United Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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