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Stourbridge vs Leiston Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Stourbridge

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Leiston

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.6%0-24.1%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.9%1-111.1%1-27.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.4%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.3%3-15.3%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.3%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 28.8% — — —

Over 2.5 55.4% — — —

Over 3.5 35.0% — — —

BTTS 56.3% — — —

Home O1.5 48.8% — — —

Away O1.5 37.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stourbridge1.7

Leiston1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STOURBRIDGE · PPG 1.61

LEISTON · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Stourbridge (H) 46.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Leiston (A) 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Stourbridge face Leiston in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stourbridge a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Leiston 29%, so Stourbridge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Stourbridge and 1.3 for Leiston (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stourbridge are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.43 for Leiston. This match finished 2-2.

Stourbridge vs Leiston Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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