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Bury Town vs Leiston Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

Bury Town

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Leiston

PPG 1.37 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.6%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.1%1-110.4%1-26.0%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.3%3-16.2%3-23.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.4%4+-22.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 52.4% 1.91 +0.5%

Draw 23.4% 30.3% 3.30 -13.7%

Away win 24.0% 30.3% 3.30 -12.5%

Over 2.5 61.2% 60.6% 1.65 +1.0%

Over 3.5 39.1% 35.3% 2.83 +10.7%

BTTS 61.5% 61.7% 1.62 -0.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 54.3% 1.84 +2.7%

Away O1.5 33.2% 36.0% 2.78 -7.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bury Town1.9

Leiston1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BURY TOWN · PPG 1.87

LEISTON · PPG 1.37

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bury Town (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +0.5%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.7%

Leiston (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bury Town face Leiston in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bury Town a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Leiston 24%, so Bury Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Bury Town and 1.2 for Leiston (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bury Town are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.37 for Leiston. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 4-3.

Bury Town vs Leiston Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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