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Bishop's Stortford vs Alvechurch Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Bishop's Stortford

PPG 1.35 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Alvechurch

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-112.7%0-27.7%0-33.1%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.9%1-113.3%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.7%2-16.9%2-24.2%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.0%3-12.4%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% — — —

Draw 26.8% — — —

Away win 42.1% — — —

Over 2.5 44.8% — — —

Over 3.5 26.3% — — —

BTTS 49.1% — — —

Home O1.5 30.6% — — —

Away O1.5 37.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–1 12.7%

#3 0–0 10.5%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bishop's Stortford1.0

Alvechurch1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BISHOP'S STORTFORD · PPG 1.35

ALVECHURCH · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.17, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bishop's Stortford (H) 31.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Alvechurch (A) 42.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bishop's Stortford face Alvechurch in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bishop's Stortford a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Alvechurch 42%, so Alvechurch are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Bishop's Stortford and 1.2 for Alvechurch (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bishop's Stortford are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 1.08 for Alvechurch. This match finished 0-3.

Bishop's Stortford vs Alvechurch Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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