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Kettering Town vs Stamford Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

Kettering Town

PPG 1.81 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDW

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Stamford

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-16.5%0-22.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.8%1-110.7%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-18.8%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.6%3-14.8%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-12.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 69.4% 1.44 -14.6%

Draw 24.8% 27.0% 3.70 -4.9%

Away win 15.9% 16.7% 6.00 -2.8%

Over 2.5 44.5% 55.6% 1.80 -19.9%

Over 3.5 25.5% 35.3% 2.83 -16.7%

BTTS 48.0% 54.6% 1.83 -12.2%

Home O1.5 48.1% 63.3% 1.58 -24.0%

Away O1.5 17.0% 23.3% 4.30 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.0%

H 59% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.8%

#2 2–0 13.8%

#3 1–1 10.7%

#4 0–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kettering Town1.6

Stamford0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KETTERING TOWN · PPG 1.81

STAMFORD · PPG 0.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kettering Town (H) 59.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -14.6%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.9%

Stamford (A) 15.9%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kettering Town face Stamford in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kettering Town a 59% chance, the draw 25% and Stamford 16%, so Kettering Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Kettering Town and 0.6 for Stamford (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kettering Town are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 0.69 for Stamford. This match finished 5-0.

Kettering Town vs Stamford Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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