Leagues / ENGLAND / Non League Premier - Isthmian
Non League Premier - Isthmian
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 19 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
42.1%
1X2
8/19
52.6%
O/U 2.5
10/19
57.9%
BTTS
11/19
31.6%
Exact score
6/19
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
10
Settled
30.0%
Hit rate
3/10
1.48
Avg odds
-58.6%
ROI
-5.9u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=6 16.7% HIT · AVG 1.54 · -73.8% ROI
HOME WIN · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.32 · -14.3% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.62 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
✓ Solid
1
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
2
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
7
Bets
43%
Hit
-40.9%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
April 2026 // 15 PICKS · 8 HIT · 7 MISS
25 APR Wingate / F. vs Aveley Over 2.5 0–2 MISS25 APR Canvey Island vs Ramsgate Over 2.5 2–4 HIT25 APR Carshalton vs St Albans Over 2.5 1–0 MISS25 APR Chatham Town vs Lewes Home +1% 2–1 HIT25 APR Dartford vs Cray Valley PM Home +3% 2–3 MISS25 APR Folkestone vs Cheshunt Home +3% 5–3 HIT25 APR Hashtag United vs Dulwich Hamlet Over 2.5 -3% 1–2 HIT25 APR Welling Utd vs Billericay Town Away +7% 2–2 MISS25 APR Whitehawk vs Potters Bar Over 2.5 1–1 MISS25 APR Brentwood Town vs Chichester City Over 2.5 2–2 HIT25 APR Burgess Hill vs Cray Wanderers Over 2.5 4–2 HIT18 APR Billericay Town vs Whitehawk Over 2.5 +3% 2–0 MISS18 APR Cheshunt vs Brentwood Town Over 2.5 +15% 0–1 MISS18 APR Chichester City vs Dartford Over 2.5 -2% 2–2 HIT18 APR Cray Wanderers vs Welling Utd Over 2.5 +14% 2–3 HIT