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Burgess Hill vs Cray Wanderers Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Burgess Hill

PPG 1.45 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cray Wanderers

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-13.1%0-23.8%0-33.0%0-4+3.2%1 1-02.5%1-16.1%1-27.3%1-35.8%1-4+6.2%2 2-02.5%2-15.9%2-27.1%2-35.7%2-4+6.0%3 3-01.6%3-13.8%3-24.6%3-33.7%3-4+3.9%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.9%4+-23.5%4+-32.8%4+-4+2.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 36.4% 2.75 -12.6%

Draw 19.4% 29.4% 3.40 -34.0%

Away win 48.8% 47.6% 2.10 +2.5%

Over 2.5 80.7% — — —

Over 3.5 63.0% — — —

BTTS 77.8% 69.4% 1.44 +12.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -38.7%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob77.8%

A 49% / xG 1.9-2.4 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 78%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.3%

#2 2–2 7.1%

#3 1–1 6.1%

#4 2–1 5.9%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Burgess Hill1.9

Cray Wanderers2.4

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.7% · O3.5 PROB 63.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BURGESS HILL · PPG 1.45

CRAY WANDERERS · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.45) vs Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Burgess Hill (H) 31.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -12.6%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -34.0%

Cray Wanderers (A) 48.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Burgess Hill face Cray Wanderers in England - Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Burgess Hill a 32% chance, the draw 19% and Cray Wanderers 49%, so Cray Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Burgess Hill and 2.4 for Cray Wanderers (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 78% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Burgess Hill are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.80 for Cray Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +12.0%. This match finished 4-2.

Burgess Hill vs Cray Wanderers Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Match Preview & Prediction

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