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Folkestone vs Cheshunt Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Folkestone

PPG 2.30 · HOME

5 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cheshunt

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 76.4% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-12.3%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.3%1-16.4%1-22.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.0%2-18.8%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.1%3-18.1%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-012.3%4+-110.9%4+-24.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.4% 74.1% 1.35 +3.1%

Draw 14.2% 22.7% 4.40 -37.5%

Away win 9.4% 15.4% 6.50 -38.9%

Over 2.5 70.4% — — —

Over 3.5 49.2% — — —

BTTS 55.0% 62.5% 1.60 -12.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -38.7%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-3

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.0%

H 76% / xG 2.8-0.9 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.0%

#2 3–0 9.1%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 1–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Folkestone2.8

Cheshunt0.9

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FOLKESTONE · PPG 2.30

CHESHUNT · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.30), Away AVERAGE (1.20) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Folkestone (H) 76.4%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV +3.1%

Draw 14.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -37.5%

Cheshunt (A) 9.4%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -38.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Folkestone face Cheshunt in England - Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Folkestone a 76% chance, the draw 14% and Cheshunt 9%, so Folkestone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Folkestone and 0.9 for Cheshunt (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Folkestone are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 1.20 for Cheshunt. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.1%. This match finished 5-3.

Folkestone vs Cheshunt Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Match Preview & Prediction

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