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Dartford vs Cray Valley PM Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Dartford

PPG 2.30 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Cray Valley PM

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-12.6%0-21.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.1%1-16.9%1-23.3%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.4%2-19.1%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.4%3-18.1%3-23.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-110.2%4+-24.9%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.3% 71.4% 1.40 +2.6%

Draw 15.4% 23.1% 4.33 -33.3%

Away win 11.3% 16.7% 6.00 -32.2%

Over 2.5 70.1% — — —

Over 3.5 48.9% — — —

BTTS 57.5% 63.7% 1.57 -9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -38.7%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.5%

H 73% / xG 2.7-1.0 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 3–0 8.4%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 1–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dartford2.7

Cray Valley PM1.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.1% · O3.5 PROB 48.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DARTFORD · PPG 2.30

CRAY VALLEY PM · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.30), Away AVERAGE (1.25) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Dartford (H) 73.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV +2.6%

Draw 15.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -33.3%

Cray Valley PM (A) 11.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -32.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dartford face Cray Valley PM in England - Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dartford a 73% chance, the draw 15% and Cray Valley PM 11%, so Dartford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Dartford and 1.0 for Cray Valley PM (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dartford are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 1.25 for Cray Valley PM. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 2-3.

Dartford vs Cray Valley PM Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Match Preview & Prediction

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