Today / England - Non League Premier - Isthmian / Wingate / F. vs Aveley

Wingate / F. vs Aveley Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Wingate / F.

PPG 1.26 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Aveley

PPG 2.05 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-17.6%0-28.5%0-36.3%0-4+5.9%1 1-03.9%1-18.8%1-29.7%1-37.2%1-4+6.7%2 2-02.3%2-15.0%2-25.6%2-34.1%2-4+3.9%3 3-00.9%3-11.9%3-22.1%3-31.6%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.7% 28.6% 3.50 -34.5%

Draw 19.7% 28.6% 3.50 -31.1%

Away win 61.6% 55.6% 1.80 +10.9%

Over 2.5 65.5% — — —

Over 3.5 43.5% — — —

BTTS 60.9% 64.5% 1.55 -5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -38.7%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob60.9%

A 62% / xG 1.1-2.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.7%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 0–2✓ 8.5%

#4 0–1 7.6%

#5 1–3 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wingate / F.1.1

Aveley2.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.5% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WINGATE / F. · PPG 1.26

AVELEY · PPG 2.05

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.05) vs Home AVERAGE (1.26)

Win probability 1X2

Wingate / F. (H) 18.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -34.5%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -31.1%

Aveley (A) 61.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wingate / F. face Aveley in England - Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wingate / F. a 19% chance, the draw 20% and Aveley 62%, so Aveley are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Wingate / F. and 2.2 for Aveley (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wingate / F. are averaging 1.26 points per game versus 2.05 for Aveley. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Wingate / F. vs Aveley Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Match Preview & Prediction

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