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Chatham Town vs Lewes Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Chatham Town

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Lewes

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 82.9% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-12.0%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.1%1-15.5%1-21.7%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.8%2-17.8%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.1%3-17.4%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-017.1%4+-110.4%4+-23.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 82.9% 82.0% 1.22 +1.1%

Draw 11.6% 20.0% 5.00 -42.0%

Away win 5.4% 11.1% 9.00 -51.4%

Over 2.5 66.8% — — —

Over 3.5 45.0% — — —

BTTS 43.0% 57.8% 1.73 -25.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -38.7%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.0%

H 83% / xG 2.8-0.6 / O2.5 67% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.8%

#2 3–0 12.1%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 4–0 8.6%

#5 2–1✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chatham Town2.8

Lewes0.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHATHAM TOWN · PPG 1.75

LEWES · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.75), Away POOR (0.75) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Chatham Town (H) 82.9%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV +1.1%

Draw 11.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -42.0%

Lewes (A) 5.4%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV -51.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chatham Town face Lewes in England - Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chatham Town a 83% chance, the draw 12% and Lewes 5%, so Chatham Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Chatham Town and 0.6 for Lewes (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chatham Town are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.75 for Lewes. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Chatham Town vs Lewes Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Match Preview & Prediction

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