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Cray Wanderers vs Welling Utd Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Cray Wanderers

PPG 1.55 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Welling Utd

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+14.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.1%0-22.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.6%1-17.5%1-25.1%1-32.3%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.7%2-19.1%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.4%3-17.3%3-25.0%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-17.9%4+-25.3%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.0% 53.5% 1.87 +14.1%

Draw 18.8% 27.0% 3.70 -30.4%

Away win 20.3% 30.8% 3.25 -34.0%

Over 2.5 72.7% 63.7% 1.57 +14.1%

Over 3.5 52.1% — — —

BTTS 67.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -38.7%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob67.6%

H 61% / xG 2.4-1.4 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 1–1 7.5%

#3 3–1 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cray Wanderers2.4

Welling Utd1.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 52.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CRAY WANDERERS · PPG 1.55

WELLING UTD · PPG 0.95

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.55) > Away POOR (0.95)

Win probability 1X2

Cray Wanderers (H) 61.0%

ODDS 1.87 · IMPLIED 53.5% EV +14.1%

Draw 18.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -30.4%

Welling Utd (A) 20.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -34.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cray Wanderers face Welling Utd in England - Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cray Wanderers a 61% chance, the draw 19% and Welling Utd 20%, so Cray Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Cray Wanderers and 1.4 for Welling Utd (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cray Wanderers are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.95 for Welling Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.1%. This match finished 2-3.

Cray Wanderers vs Welling Utd Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Match Preview & Prediction

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