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Chichester City vs Dartford Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Chichester City

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Dartford

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-18.4%0-28.0%0-35.0%0-4+3.7%1 1-05.4%1-110.2%1-29.7%1-36.2%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.3%2-16.3%2-25.9%2-33.8%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.3%3-12.5%3-22.4%3-31.5%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.5% 28.6% 3.50 -14.2%

Draw 22.4% 27.0% 3.70 -17.1%

Away win 53.2% 55.6% 1.80 -4.2%

Over 2.5 60.3% 61.7% 1.62 -2.3%

Over 3.5 38.0% — — —

BTTS 60.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -38.7%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob60.0%

A 53% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–1 8.4%

#4 0–2 8.0%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chichester City1.2

Dartford1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.3% · O3.5 PROB 38.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHICHESTER CITY · PPG 1.25

DARTFORD · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Chichester City (H) 24.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.2%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -17.1%

Dartford (A) 53.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chichester City face Dartford in England - Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chichester City a 25% chance, the draw 22% and Dartford 53%, so Dartford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Chichester City and 1.9 for Dartford (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chichester City are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.25 for Dartford. This match finished 2-2.

Chichester City vs Dartford Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Match Preview & Prediction

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