Today / England - Non League Premier - Isthmian / Carshalton vs St Albans

Carshalton vs St Albans Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Carshalton

PPG 1.15 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

St Albans

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-16.6%0-26.4%0-34.1%0-4+3.1%1 1-04.9%1-19.5%1-29.2%1-35.9%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.5%2-16.9%2-26.6%2-34.3%2-4+3.2%3 3-01.7%3-13.3%3-23.2%3-32.1%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.6%4+-21.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 57.1% 1.75 -49.6%

Draw 22.0% 27.0% 3.70 -18.6%

Away win 49.2% 29.4% 3.40 +67.3%

Over 2.5 65.6% — — —

Over 3.5 43.7% — — —

BTTS 65.3% 63.7% 1.57 +2.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -38.7%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob65.3%

A 49% / xG 1.4-1.9 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carshalton1.4

St Albans1.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CARSHALTON · PPG 1.15

ST ALBANS · PPG 1.10

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.15), Away AVERAGE (1.10)

Win probability 1X2

Carshalton (H) 28.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -49.6%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -18.6%

St Albans (A) 49.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +67.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carshalton face St Albans in England - Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carshalton a 29% chance, the draw 22% and St Albans 49%, so St Albans are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Carshalton and 1.9 for St Albans (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carshalton are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.10 for St Albans. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +67.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Carshalton vs St Albans Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Non League Premier - Isthmian Predictions